Tyler Herro. Same Conversation.

“I feel like I’m in the same conversation as those guys, the young guys coming up in the league who can be All-Stars, superstars one day. Luka [Doncic], Trae [Young], Ja [Morant], those guys like that. I feel like my name should be in that category too.”

It most definitely is now, Tyler.

Before the start of the 2021-22 season, Tyler Herro made a bold statement about how he sees himself in comparison to some of the other young stars around the NBA. After a remarkable rookie year that included him becoming the youngest player to start an NBA Finals game in league history, a subdued 2020-21 season followed, so Tyler’s statements left many NBA critics and analysts baffled. Fast-forward five months and Herro has proved he was right all along.

A new father, a maturing player, a stronger physique. Tyler Herro has become many things in the last 8 months, but perhaps most notably is that he is the Heat’s leading scorer through the first 70 games*. Despite turning just 22 in January, the former Kentucky Wildcat is establishing himself as one of the best scorers in the league and a cornerstone player for the future of the Miami Heat franchise. It looks inevitable that he is going to win the 6th Man of the Year Award and is on course to record the fourth-highest scoring bench season in NBA history.

Since the All-Star break, Herro has averaged 25.4 points per game, while shooting 47% from three-point range on 7.2 attempts. In comparison, none of Luka, Trae, or Ja have shot above 40% from three in the same period. Whichever way you choose to spin it, or whichever way your narrative lies, those numbers are elite. And it’s not just since the All-Star break that Herro’s production has been impressive. Over the course of the season, he is the NBA’s 24th highest scorer, but averages fewer minutes than the 23 names above him on the list. Tyler’s growth goes far beyond his box score and scoring totals. The work he did during the summer of 2021 and time spent with the USA Select Team ahead of the Tokyo Olympics meant he has been able to hone his craft further. I spoke before the season started about what we could expect from Tyler and he has surpassed our expectations by some margin (check out the article from September here, https://ollyrahimi.wixsite.com/website/post/the-coming-of-a-herro). The extra 10 pounds of muscle he added has allowed him to attack the rim with more regularity, and most importantly, more success. Herro has averaged almost twice as many free-throw attempts, and while he’s shooting just under 87% from the line, the Heat will want him to continue on that trend for as long as possible. His improved ball-handling and playmaking abilities are notable too, but his basketball IQ and court awareness seem to have had the biggest improvement. Playing alongside veteran Kyle Lowry has helped no end. Speaking in October of last year, Herro said of Lowry:

“Just being next to him is amazing for me. My first two years in the league I didn't really have a point guard that could get everyone organized to their spots. It's just the way that Kyle gets everyone to their spots, how he's a leader. He just understands the game in a way that not many people do.”

As well as Kyle’s direct influence on the court, his presence has been felt off-court too, often talking to Herro on the Heat bench and breaking down the game, giving tips and advice, followed by another burst upon Herro’s re-introduction. Erik Spoelstra has spoken of how important Tyler is in that sparkplug role off the bench for Miami, and his continued production will be a deciding factor in how far the Heat make it in this year’s playoffs.

There is talk around the organisation that Miami are about to offer Herro a 5-year, $184 million rookie extension deal this offseason. It’s worth noting that the new contract wouldn’t take effect until the 2023-24 season - which would be the final year of Lowry’s contract - meaning Miami would still have the flexibility to make moves going into next season if they needed to do so. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are the future of Miami Heat basketball and having both tied down to long-term contracts would be a statement of intent from the Heat, and a signal of the trust the front office has in its two young Kentucky graduates.

Tyler’s leap has been real. It’s easy to forget the Wisconsin native is in just his third year in the Association, yet he is legitimately elevating himself to an All-Star calibre. Some believe he should have made the All-Star team this year, and it’s surely just a matter of time before he is included on a roster. The decision-makers in Miami see him in the same ilk as Bradley Beal and Devin Booker, with a ceiling to match, but their refusal to include him in a package to acquire James Harden last year was met with bewilderment around the NBA by those who didn't share that vision. Now though, that decision is being justified with each passing game.

The league saw what Herro was capable of in the 2020 Playoffs, and having shaken off the 'Bubble Boy' nickname, he looks poised to lead the Heat back to the Finals with a goal of going one better this time around.

*Herro has scored more total points than Jimmy Butler despite Butler having a +0.1 PPG differential. Stats via basketball-reference.com and statmuse.com. Images courtesy of heat.com.