Let’s Talk About Context

I’ve mentioned before that context is very important when it comes to NBA basketball. Especially when you’re dealing with portions of Heat Twitter that seem to have years of pent-up anger explode out following a single loss.

Bam Adebayo has been out for 10 games, with many more to come. Jimmy Butler has missed 10 of the last 11. Markieff Morris has missed 21 straight since Judge Jokić decided on his own Serbian justice. Tyler Herro has missed the last 3. Victor Oladipo still hasn’t set foot on the floor this season. That’s five important rotational pieces that have missed large portions of the Heat’s recent schedule. We might need to add PJ Tucker to that list as we await an update on his knee after leaving the game against the Pistons early last night.

On the face of it, the above seems pretty worrisome. Missing lots of key guys is never good. However, in the ten games since news of Bam’s injury broke, the Heat have steadied the ship at .500. That’s been thanks to mammoth performances from guys you probably wouldn’t expect them from and is testament to the Heat’s scouting and development program. Gabe Vincent had back-to-back career nights. Max Strus dropped a 30-piece. Dewayne Dedmon has chipped in with double-doubles. Caleb Martin gave us 28 and 8 against the reigning champs (that guy is on a two-way contract for crying out loud!!). That’s four undrafted guys that had been somewhat overlooked before landing in Miami, now giving serious contribution to a top-end team.

As well as breakout games for typically end-of-bench guys, we’ve seen the true value of veteran leadership in Kyle Lowry and PJ Tucker. Both have really stepped up their game in the absence of the Heat’s stars and deserve a lot of credit for helping the younger guys through a difficult stretch.

With the current climate as it is in the league, Omicron ripping through teams and players like a hot knife through butter, it’s important to remember context when reacting to a loss against the league’s worst 4-24 Pistons. The Heat are just 3.5 games behind the Brooklyn Nets who sit atop the Eastern Conference as we head towards Christmas. They’re just 1 game back from second-place Chicago. A recent surge in form from the Cavs has seen them shoot up into third, and, aside from Cleveland, the Heat boast a winning record against all the teams above them. If the current crop of healthy players can hold station at around 3 or 4 games back until the Heat’s Avengers Re-Assemble, there’s no reason why Miami can’t go into the postseason as the East’s #1.

Another thing to consider (“here he goes with the context again”), has been the Heat’s early season schedule. It’s been tough. Real tough. 19 of the first 31 games Miami has played this season have been on the road. No team has been away from home more. No team has won away from home more.

Yet, all things considered, the Heat are still in a very good position. Once the likes of Morris, Oladipo, and Herro return, Miami arguably has one of the best second units in the league. https://twitter.com/ollyrahiminba/status/1472209089958711296?s=21. We know that rotations shrink going into the playoffs, but if Spo knows he can rely on guys like Vincent and Martin to chip in effectively in limited minutes when needed, the Heat have 12 or 13 players who can legitimately contribute. There aren’t a lot of teams that can say that.

With covid cases and game postponements rising exponentially, talk of a league wide suspension could come at a good time for the Heat. If NBA Commissioner Adam Silver were to decide on a two-week circuit breaker for instance, it’d give the Heat chance to get back some of their key men, ready for a surge toward the playoffs in the second half of the season.

Duncan Robinson’s shooting slump appears to be over, Kyle Lowry has found his scoring rhythm, and if the Heat’s all-star calibre trio of Adebayo, Butler and Herro can come back playing at the level they started the season with, Miami just might have another contender on its hands.

In a world that is changing by the minute, it’s important to not get too high after the wins or too low after the losses, and of course, don’t forget about the context.

Happy Holidays, people.